Fundamental Precious Metal

So far today, no fundamentals are being posted from the world's largest economy but the superpower continues on undergoing its gradual economical recovery progression as more revival signs from the ongoing downside pressures of the recession are being showed and witnessed throughout several sectors, knowing that last week showed improved import prices and retail sales throughout this past period, not forgetting a narrower-than-expected U.S. trade deficit along with slight signs of improvement detected within the deteriorated labor sector.

However, the green Benjamin lost slender momentum today, as traders appetite of risk was boosted and encouraged them to target the high-yielding euro after that Abu Dhabi pledged to bail out Dubai, pushing accordingly the dollar index, which tracks the strength of the Federal currency in front a basket of currencies to plunge from a one-month high reached out last week to trade so far around 76.38 recording a high of 76.66 and a low of 76.24.

As a result the yellow precious metal prices were able to incline on the daily chart due the present weakening of the dollar, knowing that these two have an inverse relation, having accordingly gold appeal as an alternative investment boosted and trading around $1124.96 an ounce recording a high of $1127.65 an ounce and a low of $1109.95, while the commodity indices REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB INDEX gained 1.08 points to 271.09.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Today Technical Cross

Midday Report

The pair is still positively protected above 23.6% Fibonacci level of XA leg for a suggested harmonic [BAT] pattern over short term basis, seen on the provided four-hour chart.

Thus, a potential CD leg pattern is under construction for the time being, targeting 147.40 zones; thereby, the intraday outlook is to the upside. A break of 145.50 will accelerate the highly predicted bullishness.

Trading range for today is among key support at 140.00 and key resistance at 150.60.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.40 remains intact with target at 116.00.

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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

From New York Times: Citigroup Reaches Deal to Repay Bailout Billions

Citigroup said Monday that it would repay $20 billion in bailout money that it received from the Treasury Department, after trying to persuade regulators that it was sound enough to stand on its own.

Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Today Oil Review

Crude is steady above $69 a barrel on Monday ,after sliding earlier today in Asia to a low of $68.45, amid concerns in markets in regard to recovery.

Oil dipped throughout eight consecutive sessions, marking the longest stretch of decline since July 2001, on fears that recession may be W-shaped, which eroded demand oil.

In addition, many investors are closing positions at the end of the year, which is pulling prices further to the downside.

Oil is expected to find next support at $65 a barrel. Currently, analysts expect oil to move between $65-$75 instead of $70-$80.

On the supply side; oil inventories in the world's largest crude consumer declined, as seen by the EIA report released last Wednesday.

Also, OPEC is not expected to change its production level in the coming meeting in Angola. A
price range of $70-$80 is satisfying for the cartel, but if prices continue declining further, OPEC may slash production.

Today, industrial production in Japan, the third-largest crude consumer, remained unchanged; while the U.S. will release its industrial report tomorrow.

Meanwhile, there have been changes in fundamentals since the dollar moved away from carry trades, leaving it to the yen solely and started to respond to the U.S. data.

Thus, it may gain further in the coming period as the U.S. economy is expected to expand 2.6% in 2010.

The green currency started inclining sharply since the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on hopes the U.S. economy is recovering and may hike interest rate faster than other major economies.

Hence, oil and other dollar-denominated commodities are facing pressure from the dollar's advance.

The dollar index, a gauge of the dollar's strength versus a basket of major currencies, advanced to one-month high after the upbeat U.S. retail sales figures, released on Friday.

However, the greenback did a downside correction today to 76.29 from Friday's closing at 76.51.

In stock markets, Asian stocks bounced today after Abu Dhabi surprisingly pledged to lend Dubai World, owned by Dubai government, $10 billion to pay its instant financial commitments.

The stellar news boosted Dubai shares to the highest level since October 2008, while MSCI Asia Pacific Index added near 0.5%.

Oil is currently traded at $69.60 recording a high of $69.77; whereas the contract on Friday shed $0.67 closing at $69.87, recording a high of $71.20 per barrel and a low of $69.46 per barrel.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Today Precious Metal Review

Silver and gold dropped on Friday whereas platinum recorded a mild rise, according to New York closing. In London, gold, platinum and silver dropped as we witnessed gold's fixing decline from its morning level at 1140.00 towards $1124.00 per ounce.

Meanwhile, gold closed at $1115.10 per ounce in New York, as silver dropped and reached $16.87 per ounce before closing at 17.13 down by 1.27%.

Last Friday's trading session witnessed major fluctuation for commodities and other securities; the DJIA and the S&P Commodity index rose, whereas the NASDAQ dropped. While in European markets trading has started strongly yet then limited the gains though managed to end still in the green.

As for the start of the Asian session today Japanese equities slumped at the beginning of the session yet reverted to the upside near the end to close slightly lower from opening levels.
In addition; commodity indices rose on Friday as the S&P GSCI index advanced by 1.47, whereas the RJ/CRB index also gained by 1.34 despite of the dollar closing higher last week at 76.53 against a basket of six major currencies.

Precious metals were mainly trading to the downside last week, following the dollar's advance alongside crude's drop which encouraged profit-taking.

Meanwhile, precious metals today rose today in a correctional move to the bearish wave that dominated last week's trading; gold is trading with at its highs higher by 0.93% at 1125.00; silver also followed and is trading at $17.29 per ounce, a rise almost equal to gold; platinum however appreciated by 0.42% to presently trade at $1433.00 per ounce. As of 02:40 EST.

Dubai received $10 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi to salvage it from defaulting on its maturing debt which managed to spread optimism across financial markets, supporting gains as we entered into the European session.

Dubai's exchange is considered to be one of the vital exchanges in the world for gold, thus also including some positivity to gold's trades today.

On the other hand, the Russian central banks' announcement of intentions to purchase 30 metric tons of gold to increase their gold reserves by 5.0% helped stabilize gold after the slump it witnessed.

However, the bank is expected to proceed with this plan next week and on intervals. Despite the fact that the effect of the aforesaid events can barely be sensed on gold, yet it will generally positively reflect on investors' behavior.
As for this week; the bearish pace might decline, while keeping in mind that the bearish direction remains in charge over intraday basis, due to the bullish trend that the dollar is taking and the bearish one for crude.  On the other hand, investors now are heading towards commodities as an investment, specifically after Dubai's credit woes depleted; thus, decreasing the direction towards precious metals.
Therefore, we might witness major fluctuations throughout this week, while leaning towards the downside; however, we should not forget that the overall main direction for gold over the medium term remains bullish, and heading upwards like numerous other metals. Nonetheless, gold is still a candidate for further record highs.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

European Market Review (14/12/2009)

Bright start as Dubai fears ease
London's top stocks have opened more than 50 points higher with sentiment buoyed by the decision of Abu Dhabi to bail-out Dubai, its financially embarrassed neighbour.

LSE, Standard Chartered and Royal Bank of Scotland are up on the Dubai news, which should lift the cloud of possible huge bad debts hitting the sector. Banks that have lent to Dubai World, the stricken conglomerate, will also get some support from the Abu Dhabi central bank.

Elsewhere, Dairy Milk and Crème Egg maker Cadbury today recommended shareholders reject the bid from processed foods maker Kraft Food, which it says substantially under-values the company.

The UK confectionary giant said Kraft's offer fails to recognise the value of the group's performance to date and the benefits of completing its 'Vision into Action' plan set out in June 2007.

Lloyds Banking has received overwhelming backing from investors for its £13.5bn cash call with a take-up of over 95% of the shares on offer. Analysts had expected a strong positive response as the shares were offered on a 1.34 for 1 basis at 37p each, compared to the ex-rights closing price on Friday of 56p.

British Airways has provisionally agreed on the actuarial basis to calculate the deficit in its pension schemes with the trustees, putting the shortfall in the New Airways Pension Scheme at £2.7bn. "The airline and trustees will now work together to develop a recovery plan, a process which will involve the company consulting with employees and their trade unions," BA said Monday. The result of its cabin crew's strike ballot should be known at 2pm today.

Hotel, pub and coffee shop group Whitbread expects results for the current year will 'somewhat exceed the top end of market estimates' as sales rallied in the third quarter. Revenues moved forward again in the three months to end November, with total sales up 6.7% and like for like sales rising by 0.3%. In the 39 weeks of the year to date, total sales are up 4.3% and like for like sales down 1.7%.

Distribution and outsourcing firm Bunzl has increased revenue by 11% this year so far thanks to currency exchange rates and remains on course to meet full year expectations. The UK blue chip said underlying revenue for the year to 31 December 2009 is down 1% at constant exchange rates, although that's a little better than the growth rate in the first half of 2009.

Road and infrastructure support contractor Mouchel today confirmed that it rejected two separate takeover approaches from VT Group. The company said it believes, "these approaches to be wholly inadequate and at a level which substantially under-values the company."

Shares in support services group Spice tumbled again as it revealed a huge loss a write-off of its social housing gas business. A £42.9m write-down sent the billings group into a loss of £31.5m in the half year to October.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Dollar Pares Gains, Yen Slightly Higher

Dollar pares some recent gains on news that Abu Dhabi is providing $10b to help Dubai World to meet it's obligations. Dubai will use $4.1b to repay an Islamic bond maturing today for Nakhell PJSC, its real-estate unit. The rest of the money will be used to pay trade creditors, contractors, interest expenses and be the working capital through April 2010. The news came in as a relief for the market and sent stocks higher.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

IHSG Ditutup Melemah 0,50%, BUMI dan TLKM Pimpin Penurunan

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada penutupan perdagangan saham hari ini tercatat berakhir melemah. IHSG pada penutupan perdagangan hari ini tercatat melemah 0,50% ke level 2506,386. Sedangkan indeks saham-saham unggulan LQ 45 pada sore ini tercatat melemah 0,48% ke level 496,008

Pada penutupan perdagangan saham hari ini tercatat volume perdagangan sebesar 5,316 miliar saham senilai Rp 3,513 triliun dengan total transaksi sebanyak 73740 kali. Pada penutupan perdagangan saham hari ini tercatat sebanyak 55 saham naik, 132 saham turun, dan 54 saham tidak berubah.

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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Technical Precious Metal Report

Asian report
 
Silver has approached the technical target of Friday's report at 16.75, where correctional movements started but still moving below the broken uptrend line, seen on the daily chart. These movements are to be seen as corrective actions for the consecutive downside movements that have started from 19.40 zones - potential reversal zone for a bearish harmonic AB=CD. Thereby, potential downside rally resumption over intraday basis, while the pivotal resistance areas of 17.85 should act as a ceiling today to keep this negative scenario valid.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 15.90 and key resistance now at 18.45.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 12.45 remains intact with targets at 20.15.


Support17.1817.0517.0016.9016.85

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Resistance17.3517.4717.5417.6017.65

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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

IHSG Sesi 1: Masih Melemah 0,33%, Sektor Pertambangan Masih Tertekan

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1 hari ini tercatat berakhir melemah. IHSG pada penutupan perdagangan saham sesi 1 siang ini tercatat melemah 0,33% ke level 2510,879. Sedangkan indeks saham-saham unggulan LQ 45 pada penutupan perdagangan saham hari ini tercatat melemah 0,35% ke level 496,684.

Pada penutupan perdagangan saham sesi 1 siang ini tercatat volume perdagangan sebesar 3,383 miliar saham senilai Rp 2,079 triliun dengan total transaksi sebanyak 40.143 kali. Pada penutupan perdagangan sesi 1 siang ini tercatat sebanyak 44 saham naik, 105 saham turun, dan 52 saham tidak berubah.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

IHSG Dibuka Tertekan 0,77%. Seiring Merosotnya Harga Minyak Dunia

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada pembukaan perdagangan hari ini tercatat melemah cukup signifikan. IHSG pada awal perdagangan hari ini tercatat melemah 0,77% ke level 2499,703. Sedangkan indeks saham-saham unggulan LQ 45 pada awal perdagangan hari ini tercatat melemah 0,94% ke level 494,319.

Pada awal perdagangan saham hari ini tercatat volume perdagangan sebesar 1,620 miliar saham senilai Rp 754,9 miliar dengan total transaksi sebanyak 4622 kali. Pada awal perdagangan hari ini tercatat sebanyak 19 saham naik, 54 saham turun, dan 40 saham tidak berubah.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

[breaking news] Nikkei Dibuka Menguat Terbatas, Survey Tankan Beri Sentimen Positif

Dear investor and or trader:

Pada perdagangan di bursa Jepang pagi hari ini tampak terjadi peningkatan yang tidak terlalu besar pada indeks-indeks utama (14/12).

Bursa Jepang tampak naik sedikit setelah pada perdagangan di bursa Wall Street minggu lalu berakhir cenderung menguat.

Rilis data survey manufaktur dan non-manufaktur Tankan hari ini cukup baik sehingga memberikan arahan positif lain bagi bursa Jepang.

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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Japan this Morning!

Bank of Japan's tankan survey shows business sentiment up, but capital-spending plans down
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"