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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Morning European Market

Tuesday round-up
British Airways, Bonus tax, Google
 Almost one million air passengers face travel chaos over Christmas after British Airways cabin crew voted for a 12-day strike starting on December 22.

The dispute, which will cost the loss-making BA hundreds of millions of pounds, threatens to intensify, with unions planning more mass walkouts. Unite won overwhelming support for the strike over changes it says have been imposed, including the reduction of one crew member on all flights, the Times reports.

The European Union yesterday gave the green light to the Government's bail-out of the Royal Bank of Scotland, described as Europe's biggest ever state handout to a private company. European Commission officials said that the support and restructuring plan for RBS, which it calculated at £60bn to £100bn, was the largest government subsidy in 52 years of EU competition policy, the Telegraph reports.

The Government is expected to extend the scope of its controversial banker bonus tax to ensure that the City house of N M Rothschild and other banks with non-standard year-ends do not slip through the net, The Times has learnt. Rothschild, which has operated in the heart of the City for two centuries, had been set to avoid the tax because, unusually among UK investment banks, it pays its annual bonuses in June, two months after the temporary tax is due to end on April 5 next year.

Alistair Darling has warned banks that he will not water down his 50 % supertax on bonuses or offer special deals in a standoff in which brokers and banks have threatened to move key staff out of the UK. The chancellor has been deluged with claims by banks that the tax would raise far more than the £550m he predicted. They have demanded that he make the levy less onerous, the FT reports.

The fallout from the Government's controversial bonus tax was felt in earnest yesterday as one of the Square Mile's biggest trading companies paved the way for its staff to move abroad to more attractive tax regimes. Tullett Prebon, an interdealer broker, has offered employees the chance to move to one of its overseas offices days after Alistair Darling announced the 50 per cent "supertax" on bank bonuses in his pre-Budget report, the Independent reports.

Google has secretly developed a new mobile phone that it hopes will challenge the iPhone's dominance of the lucrative smartphone market. The phone, code-named Nexus One, is already being tested by external mobile phone experts and it is expected to go on sale early next year. A person who has seen the phone told The Daily Telegraph said it was a "huge leap forward" from current crop of smartphones including the iPhone.

Meanwhile, the introduction of next generation mobile phones into the UK has hit a "significant" hitch after it emerged that people who use the state-of-the-art devices at home may stop their televisions working, or even those next door. The Government is in the process of switching the country from analogue television signals to digital by 2012, the Independent reports.

Unilever was expected last night to announce within hours the appointment of Jean-Marc Huet as its chief financial officer. Mr Huet yesterday announced his resignation as finance chief at Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), the pharmaceutical company. He is expected to replace James Lawrence, who announced last Thursday that he was leaving Unilever. He had lost out on the chief executive's job to Paul Polman, and will leave the maker of Dove and Persil at the end of the year — the same time that Mr Huet will depart BMS, the Times reports.

Support for a global tax or emissions trading scheme for shipping and aviation is growing at the Copenhagen climate change talks, according to two sources close to European Union negotiators. If agreed at the tense Copenhagen summit, the money is likely to go towards a £100bn "climate aid" fund to help poorer states deal with global warming. Either a tax or emissions trading system specifically for these industries could provide up to a quarter of this amount, the Telegraph reports.

The seemingly inexhaustible demand for property meant that house prices continued to rise last month, despite a fresh supply of stock coming on to the housing market. The proportion of estate agents reporting an increase rather than a decrease in house prices was at its highest for three years, according to figures from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). The figures show that 35% of surveyors reported rising rather than falling prices in the past three months, up from 34% in October and the highest quarterly reading since November 2006, the Times reports.

Participants in the auction that led to Terra Firma's disastrous £4bn acquisition of EMI are challenging the account of events set out in a lawsuit filed by the private equity firm against Citigroup. Guy Hands, Terra Firma's chairman, has alleged that the bank fraudulently misrepresented the position of other bidders on the eve of the bid deadline in the 2007 auction, knowing that they had dropped out but still encouraging him to make a 265p binding bid, the Times reports.

The Greek prime minister announced a crackdown on corruption and tight controls on spending on Monday but disappointed market-watchers expecting more decisive measures to reduce the budget deficit. George Papandreou told trade unionists and business groups that public sector workers would receive real wage rises next year in spite of Greece's deteriorating public finances, the FT reports.

BAE Systems has welcomed a decision by the Government Accountability Office, the US watchdog, in favour of the UK-based arms manufacturer after it protested against the award of a lucrative contract to a US competitor. The $3bn (£2.7bn) defence contract for the production of FMTVs, or Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles, was awarded to Oshkosh by the US Department of Army in a surprise decision in August, the FT reports.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Fundamental Oil

Analysis

Crude slightly changed above $69 a barrel, after declining for nine straight sessions, ahead of important U.S. data.

Oil is continuing its downside trend, marking its longest stretch of losses since July 2001, as demand on inventories declined and the U.S. dollar rebounded.

The EIA report released last week, showed that gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels, the highest since April; while distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels. Later on today, the API report will be released, while the EIA report is due tomorrow.

Eyes are on the industrial production and capacity utilization reports released today in the U.S., which are anticipated to show improvement.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar is continuing its powerful rebound that started since the release of the NFP report.

Meanwhile, the greenback is impacted by the U.S. news and not as a refuge.

The vivid recovery signs in the U.S. are expected to boost the dollar more, thereby putting more downside pressure on oil, which is expected to decline to $65 a barrel in the upcoming days.

After the stellar data released recently in the U.S., there are speculations that the FOMC might stop quantitative easing and start adopting tightening monetary policy soon. 

Tomorrow, the interest rate will be set after two-day meeting by the FOMC.

Currently, oil is traded at $69.47 recording a high of $69.87 and a low of $69.30.  

The black gold is now moving in an oversold area according to the Stochastic Oscillator momentum indicator, while it is expected to gain support at $65 and resistance at $70.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Fundamental Precious Metal

Recovery expectations for US banks increase volatility for precious metals.

Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's decision, jitters spread across financial markets, reflecting on precious metals which managed to acquire some gains yesterday yet soon resumed today to their bearish trend.

Despite of expectations for steady rates by the feds, yet investors are expecting a change in rhetoric and indications from the Feds on the coming monetary move. In our point of view, setting a specific date to exit current monetary policies and reversing them could be considered a far-fetched idea; however, traders are currently looking at the U.S. banking sector, where its financial system is resuming to stability.

The plan which swelled to $245 billion on funds provided to banks is expected to start being covered by almost $185 billion.

This repayment to the government includes $45 billion from Citigroup and $20 billion from Wells Fargo.

The news and expectations has made traders currently see the credit crisis almost coming to an end; thus, enabling European and U.S. stock indices to bullishly move yesterday, despite of the Nikkei's drop today on the back of the yen's appreciation which could hinder the economic recovery.

Precious metals advanced yesterday following the dollar's drop alongside crude's gains, encouraging investors into heading for metals in speculation and for fast gains.

Nevertheless, despite the majority of speculative demand in the market, still some diverse investments are seen, yet slightly lower, especially on Gold, which was aroused on the bank of the Russian Central Bank's intention to increase their gold reserves by 5.0% starting next week!

Gold managed to appreciate throughout yesterday's trading session to close at $1126.40 per ounce, gaining 1.01%; silver followed to close at 17.39 rising by 1.52%; whereas platinum also spiked by 1.47% to close trades at 1448.00.

As seen, Silver was the metal with the most gains yesterday, while gold was the least to rise, insuring the power of speculation in the market as we mentioned above; we still see diverse demand and as we said on gold in particular, yet we can not understate the fact that stability across the global economy and emerging signs of improvement alongside a stronger dollar and subdued inflation has eased the headings to gold from investors and portfolio managers to gold as a hedge against instability that was seen.

Today, precious metals returned to their bearish trend, where as of 02:13 a.m. EST; gold fell by 0.25%, while silver depreciated by 1.04% and platinum followed and dropped by 0.35%.

Gold is trading at $1123.60 per ounce today, seeming less attractive alongside profit-taking that followed yesterday's rise; meanwhile, platinum also slightly fell to trade at $1443.00 per ounce today.

Platinum still witnesses some demand from sides that view industrial sectors improving throughout the global economy, and therefore providing platinum some positive demand.

Silver, on the other hand, still faces volatile fluctuations, where speculations on the metal is seen in comparison to both platinum and gold, which makes profit-taking waves larger on other metals, which is the case incase we witness a bullish speculative wave on precious metal prices.

This year, gold is seen gaining more than 28%, whereas the dollar dropped by 6% against a basket of foreign currencies. Meanwhile, crude's rise this year is notable after plummeting below $40 per barrel; however, looking at commodity indices we see that they managed to record high levels this year.

Yesterday, the S&P GSCI index rose by 2.61 points and closed at 491.93 in NY; whereas, the RJ/CRB index followed and gained by 2.66 to close yesterday at 273.52 points.

The gain that has been witnessed in the commodity indices futures, was encouraged by the dollar's drop and crude's gains, yet all in all the indices are still trading below their year's recorded highs.

Despite of commodity indices plunging throughout this month's trades, they are presently trading near the highest levels this year, this further causes significant confliction among various expectations and reminding us in older statements and warnings from an expected major incline in foods and commodity prices after the global economic recovery; therefore, providing possibilities of rising inflation over the long term, this time caused by food and not just energies!
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

MONEY RATES: Monday, December 14, 2009

MARKETS DATA CENTER
from The Wall Street Journal Online

International rates
Prime rates
Latest Wk ago
U.S.
3.25 3.25

Canada
2.25 2.25

Euro zone
1.00 1.00

Japan
1.475 1.475

Switzerland
0.53 0.53

Britain
0.50 0.50

Australia
3.75 3.75

Hong Kong
5.25 5.25


Overnight repurchase
Latest Wk ago
U.S.
0.14 0.12

U.K. (BBA)
0.480 0.485

Euro zone
0.38 0.36


U.S. government rates
Latest Wk ago
Discount
[ Effective Date: 12/16/2008 ]
0.50 0.50

Federal funds
[ Effective Date: 12/16/2008 ]
Effective rate
0.13 0.13
Target rate
0-0.25 0-0.25
High
0.3800 0.4000
Low
0.0313 0.3200
Bid
0.1200 0.1000
Offer
0.2500 0.2500

Treasury bill auction
[ Auction Date: 12/14/2009 ]
4 weeks
0.070 0.085
13 weeks
0.040 0.050
26 weeks
0.160 0.165

Secondary Market

Freddie Mac
30-year mortgage yields
Latest Wk ago
30 days
4.67 4.57
60 days
4.73 4.63
One-year ARM
2.500 2.500

Fannie Mae
30-year mortgage yields
Latest Wk ago
30 days
4.611 4.578
60 days
4.678 4.645

Bankers acceptance
Latest Wk ago
30 days
0.22 0.22
60 days
0.25 0.25
90 days
0.26 0.26
120 days
0.28 0.28
150 days
0.33 0.33
180 days
0.36 0.36

Other short-term rates

Latest Wk ago
Call money
2.00 2.00

Commercial paper
Latest Wk ago
30 to 59 days
0.10 ...
60 to 69 days
0.12 ...
70 to 89 days
0.17 ...
90 to 125 days
0.18 ...
126 to 149 days
0.22 ...
150 to 179 days
0.26 ...
180 to 209 days
0.28 ...
210 to 239 days
0.29 ...
240 to 270 days
0.30 ...

Dealer commercial paper
Latest Wk ago
30 days
0.20 0.20
60 days
0.21 0.21
90 days
0.22 0.22

Euro commercial paper
Latest Wk ago
30 day
n.a. n.a.
Two month
n.a. 0.49
Three month
0.53 0.53
Four month
0.56 0.56
Five month
0.65 0.65
Six month
0.72 0.72

London interbank offered rate, or Libor
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.23250 0.23469
Three month
0.25375 0.25656
Six month
0.45313 0.48438
One year
1.00063 1.05438

New York Funding Rate
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.2125 0.2338
Three month
0.2540 0.2756

Libor Swaps (USD)
Latest Wk ago
Two year
1.195 1.148
Three year
1.785 1.723
Five year
2.666 2.574
Ten year
3.676 3.593
20 year
4.235 4.187
30 year
4.315 4.275

Euro Libor
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.457 0.458
Three month
0.676 0.680
Six month
0.979 0.981
One year
1.226 1.225

Euro interbank offered rate
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.486 0.481
Three month
0.715 0.717
Six month
0.999 0.998
One year
1.247 1.245

Hibor
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.050 0.050
Three month
0.099 0.109
Six month
0.226 0.259
One year
0.534 0.583

Asian dollars
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.243 0.243
Three month
0.267 0.265
Six month
0.470 0.496
One year
1.007 1.058

Certificates of Deposit
Latest Wk ago
One month
0.200 0.200
Three month
0.220 0.220
Six Month
0.280 0.280

Merrill Lynch Ready Assets Trust
Latest Wk ago
Call money
0.070 0.070

Eurodollars (mid rates)
Offer Bid
One month
0.20 0.40
Two month
0.30 0.50
Three month
0.40 0.60
Four month
0.35 0.55
Five month
0.35 0.55
Six month
0.45 0.65

Freddie Mac
Weekly survey
Thursday, December 10, 2009


Latest Wk ago
30-year fixed
4.81 4.71
15-year fixed
4.32 4.27
Five-year ARM
4.26 4.19
One-year ARM
4.24 4.25

__________________________________
Footnotes
U.S. prime rate and discount rate are effective December 16, 2008. U.S. prime rate is the base rate on corporate loans posted by at least 70% of the 10 largest U.S. banks; Other prime rates aren't directly comparable; lending practices vary widely by location; Discount rate is the charge on loans to depository institutions by the New York Federal Reserve Banks; Federal-funds rate is on reserves traded among commercial banks for overnight use in amounts of $1 million or more; Call money rate is the charge on loans to brokers on stock-exchange collateral; Dealer commercial paper rates are for high-grade unsecured notes sold through dealers by major corporations; Freddie Mac RNY is the required net yield for the one-year 2% rate-capped ARM. Libor is the British Bankers' Association average of interbank offered rates for dollar deposits in the London market; Libor Swaps quoted are mid-market, semi-annual swap rates and pay the floating 3-month Libor rate..

Sources: Merrill Lynch; Bureau of Labor Statistics; ICAP plc.; Reuters; General Electric Capital Corp.; Tullett Prebon Information, Ltd.
---
IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Technicals Major Currencies

Weekly Report – 14-18/12/2009
 
By trading below 1.4715 we can see that the likelihood for the wave to extend the decline is valid for this week's trading, as the pair now targets 23.6% correction at 1.4520 and then 1.44890 and those targets represent Fibonacci levels for various timeframes. Stochastic is oversold which include the possibility for heightened volatility and a number of upside correction, yet trading below 1.4850 will keep the downside wave valid for this week's trading.
The trading range for this week is among the major support level at 1.4320 and the major resistance at 1.5065.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4135 remains intact targeting 1.6000.


Support1.46251.45201.44901.44401.4370

----------------

Resistance1.47601.48501.49151.49651.5065

----------------

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.4760 targeting 1.4490 and stop loss above 1.4860, might be appropriate this week

Great British Pound (GBP)

----------------


Weekly Report – 23-27/11/2009
 
The pair is trading below the 61.8% extension and that is prevailing negatively over this week's expected trading. Despite the upside reversal on RSI still the pair can not find solid support to consolidate upon to initiate this reversal and for that we expect the downside wave to prevail over this week as far as the pair is steady below the mentioned extension at 1.6350. A negative pattern is seen on the secondary image in the yellow area which confirms our expectations while holding the possibility for heightened volatility and fluctuations amid expected upside correction as Stochastic is trading near oversold areas.
The trading range for this week is among the major support level at 1.5810 and the major resistance at 1.6685.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact targeting 1.7200.


Support1.61551.61201.60601.59901.5900

----------------

Resistance1.63501.64251.65451.66101.6685

----------------

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.6335 targeting 1.6120 and stop loss above 1.6425, might be appropriate this week

Japanese Yen (JPY)

----------------


Weekly Report – 23-27/11/2009
 
This week's trading is still below the major resistance level for the downside wave at 90.70 and now the pair needs to return to trade steadily below 20 MA, and this level resides 88.25. Stochastic is leading an upside attempt yet the move is not supported with consolidation above the mentioned resistance and by that we see that trading below this level will keep the downside wave generally valid.
The trading range for this week is among the major support level at 84.70 and the major resistance at 92.40.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact targeting 82.60.


Support88.2087.7587.3586.2085.60

----------------

Resistance89.2590.7091.0591.9592.40

----------------

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 89.25 targeting 85.60 and stop loss above 90.70, might be appropriate this week

Swiss Franc (CHF)

----------------


Weekly Report – 23-27/11/2009

The selling saturation signals on momentum indicators in addition to approaching the major resistance level for the downside wave makes us believe in the downside correctional potential which might be valid this week.  Despite that we expect the downside move will be temporarily and correctional we still believe that this week's general trend is to be to the downside as far as 1.0400 resistance is intact.
The trading range for this week is among the major support level at 1.0175 and the major resistance at 1.0480.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1225 remains intact targeting 0.9600.


Support1.03001.02601.01801.01001.0065

----------------

Resistance1.04001.04801.05501.06101.0770

----------------

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.0400 targeting 1.0180 and stop loss above 1.0550, might be appropriate this week

Canadian Dollar (CAD)

----------------


Weekly Report – 23-27/11/2009

Trading above the 50 MA at 1.0545 in addition to continued trading above 61.8% correction makes us believe that the pair is preparing for further upside moves. Stochastic is providing upside signals accompanied by a general upside signal on RSI; meanwhile we can see that the recorded bottoms have taken the form of ascending bottoms which validates the potential for upside movement this week. Stabilizing above 1.0660 will confirm the upside direction.
The trading range for this week is among the major support level at 1.0230 and the major resistance at 1.1065.
The general trend is to the downside as far 1.1870 remains intact targeting 1.0000.
 


Support1.04601.04001.03751.03501.0230

----------------

Resistance1.06601.07101.07801.08351.1065

----------------

RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying the pair from 1.0600 targeting 1.0810 and stop loss below 1.0400, might be appropriate this week
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

Evening on European

Financials lift Footsie
 
Market Movers
techMARK 1,533.30 +0.59%
FTSE 100 5,315.34 +1.02%
FTSE 250 9,037.77 +0.41%
Footsie began the week with good gains as the day got off to a strong start following news that Abu Dhabi is to bail out its troubled fellow Emirate Dubai.

Investors piled into LSE, Standard Chartered and HSBC as the threat of possible huge bad debts recedes.

An upgrade by Credit Suisse, which highlighted the low exposure to Dubai as well as the bullish trading update last week, gave Standard an extra lift.

International financial exchange Dubai Bourse has a 20.56% stake in the LSE. Banks that have lent to Dubai World, the stricken conglomerate, will also get some support from the Abu Dhabi central bank.

Stronger metal prices were good news for the miners. Lonmin, Xstrata, Eurasian Natural Resources and Antofagasta are going well.

But there was bad news for shareholders and travellers as British Airways staff voted in favour of strike action over Christmas in a row over new working practices.

The result, said to have been 9 to 1 in favour of strike action, means staff will walk out for 12 days from 22 December. Earlier, fears that the proposed merger with Spain's Iberia could run into trouble rose as BA said its pension deficit had risen to £3.7bn from £2.1bn at the last triennial review in 2006.

Whitbread remains a firm favourite though. The hotel, pub and coffee shop group has frothed higher after saying it expects results for the current year will 'somewhat exceed the top end of market estimates' as sales rallied in the third quarter. Revenues moved forward again in the three months to end November, with total sales up 6.7% and like for like sales rising by 0.3%. In the 39 weeks of the year to date, total sales are up 4.3% and like for like sales down 1.7%.

Elsewhere, Dairy Milk and Crème Egg maker Cadbury today recommended shareholders reject the bid from processed foods maker Kraft Food, which it says substantially under-values the company.

The UK confectionary giant said Kraft's offer fails to recognise the value of the group's performance to date and the benefits of completing its 'Vision into Action' plan set out in June 2007.

Lloyds Banking has received overwhelming backing from investors for its £13.5bn cash call with a take-up of over 95% of the shares on offer. Analysts had expected a strong positive response as the shares were offered on a 1.34 for 1 basis at 37p each, compared to the ex-rights closing price on Friday of 56p.

Distribution and outsourcing firm Bunzl has increased revenue by 11% this year so far thanks to currency exchange rates and remains on course to meet full year expectations. The UK blue chip said underlying revenue for the year to 31 December 2009 is down 1% at constant exchange rates, although that's a little better than the growth rate in the first half of 2009.

Shares in PartyGaming jumped on reports of a merger on the cards with Austrian rival Bwin. A tie-up would form a £2bn online gaming giant, the reports suggested.

Road and infrastructure support contractor Mouchel today confirmed that it rejected two separate takeover approaches from VT Group. The company said it believes, "these approaches to be wholly inadequate and at a level which substantially under-values the company." Shares in FTSE 250 listed VT, which said it is 'continuing to review its options,' fell back.

Shares in support services group Spice tumbled again as it revealed a huge loss a write-off of its social housing gas business. A £42.9m write-down sent the billings group into a loss of £31.5m in the half year to October.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"

U.S. Morning Call for Monday, December 14, 2009

Overnight Developments

* The European DJ Stoxx 50 this morning is up +0.71% and Mar S&Ps are up +5.60 points. Global stock markets received a boost today following news that Abu Dhabi will provide $10 billion to Dubai's Nakheel PJSC in order to avoid a default. Abu Dhabi's pledge reassured investors who had worried about a possible worldwide contagion from Dubai World's threat of defaulting on its debt as it will allow Dubai World's Nakheel real-estate subsidiary to make $4.1 billion of payments on bonds that mature today. European bank stocks that had exposure to the U.A.E. rallied with HSBC up 2.2% and Standard Chartered gaining 3.4%. Banks pared some gains after Citigroup said it reached an agreement with the US government and its regulators to repay the $20 billion that the government holds in its Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) trust preferred securities and to terminate the loss-sharing agreement with the government. Daimler AG rose 1.8% after saying it expects growth and sales to continue to rise in China and said it will triple production capacity at a Beijing venture for a new Mercedez-Benz E-Class sedan. Nomura Holdings predicts the Euro Stoxx 50 Stock Index will rise to 3,200 by the end of 2010, as the rally in 2009 was a "macro trade" while gains in 2010 will have a different complexion, as "the emphasis will switch to the micro, with themes within the market becoming more important."

* The Asian markets today closed mixed with Japan down -0.02%, Hong Kong +0.84%, China +1.06%, Taiwan +0.31%, Australia +0.41%, Singapore -0.04%, South Korea +0.34%, India -0.13%. Japan's Q3 Tankan large manufacturers sentiment survey rose +9 to -24 and showed that large companies planned deeper spending cuts to protect earnings that are under threat from a rising yen that surged to a 14-year high against the dollar last month. The Xinhua news agency reported the China's government will target "excessive" growth in property prices in some cities as it plans to "speed the construction of low-cost housing" and strengthen supervision of the real-state market. Norman Chan, the head of Hong Kong's de facto central bank warned that Asia's experience in the past 20 years shows the biggest threat to financial stability in Asia "is from asset bubbles, rather than inflation." Korea's Samsung C&T, builder of the world's tallest tower in Dubai, closed 3.3% higher after Abu Dhabi agreed to provide the money for Dubai's financial support fund.
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IWAN CAHYO SURYADI, "The Trend is Your Friend"